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      • China shifts stance in Sudan, advancing prospects for partition

China shifts stance in Sudan, advancing prospects for partition

Long Sudan's most powerful friend, China is shifting ties

just weeks ahead of a key secession vote, cozying up to the nation's

separatist southern region in what appears to be a pragmatic

concession to the impending partition of Africa's largest country.

 

China's move could help deal a final blow to any lingering hopes by

Arab leaders in the north to hold the country together by force.

 

World leaders still fear that an expected pro-secession vote in

Southern Sudan's January referendum will re-ignite a decades-long

conflict between Sudan's ethnic African south and Arab-dominated

government in the north, spilling refugees into neighboring lands and

further destabilizing a region struggling to lift itself from decades

of poverty and conflict.

 

The vote was called for in a U.S.-brokered 2005 peace deal. Yet for

years, China - Sudan's chief economic player - kept aloof from the

peace process. During Sudan's civil war, China provided key diplomatic

refuge and military support for Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir,

even as the U.S. imposed heavy sanctions on his regime.

 

The 2005 accord granted the former southern rebels their own regional

government, but relations between China and Southern Sudan for years

remained relatively stiff, despite the fact that most of China's oil

interests are in southern territory. In 2008, China opened a consulate

in Juba, the southern capital - still staffed by 5 people.

 

But in recent months, relations have warmed dramatically behind what

one Western diplomat called a comprehensive and successful charm

offensive towards Southern Sudan's leaders.

 

"China now realizes that secession is the most likely outcome to the

referendum, and as the key economic player in Sudan, they want to

hedge their bets and be on both sides," says Richard Downie, deputy

director of the Africa program at the Center for Strategic and

International Studies.

 

"China is hedging its bets, with a noticeable lean towards the south,"

said a Western diplomat in Sudan. The envoy could not be identified

because he wasn't authorized to speak on the record.

 

The courtship began in August, after a visit to China by Anne Itto,

deputy secretary general of the Sudan People's Liberation Movement,

the former rebel group now governing Southern Sudan.

 

"I found them (the Chinese) scared to death," Itto says of her visit.

"They had been told by Khartoum that if the south secedes, it would be

chaos."

 

Itto's visit marked an apparent turning point. Since then, a wave of

senior southern officials - more than 20, according to some counts -

from the regional, state, and county levels have flown to Beijing in a

flurry of visits.

 

In October, the Chinese Communist Party sent its first delegation to

Juba. Then in November, it upgraded its Juba consul-general to

ambassadorial level, and named its former envoy to Bahrain, Li Zhiguo

to the post.

 

"Oil is of course our number one interest," said a Chinese official

involved in Southern Sudan relations. "What we really want is

stability."

 

"Chinese officials in Juba and Beijing have made clear that they are

willing to recognize an independent Southern Sudan, and that they will

follow the lead of the African Union," said the Western diplomat, who

was not authorized to speak on the record.

 

The move is of more than just academic interest: it could represent a

significant shift in the geopolitical scales just as Khartoum makes

its final end-game calculations.

 

Many foreign governments feared that President Bashir would try to

block the January referendum, attempt to take control of the oil

fields, or simply refuse to recognize the result of the poll. The

result of all three actions would likely be conflict.

 

If the Sudanese leader can no longer count on the Chinese to back him

in clinging to the south, his options become far more limited.

 

"If I was Khartoum, I might be thinking the support of China in the

U.N. Security Council is less certain now, although all we can really

do is speculate at this point," said Downie.

 

China has already shown its willingness to buck its friendship with

Bashir by deciding not to veto a request in 2008 by the International

Criminal Court to investigate Bashir for war crimes in Darfur.

 

"Neutrality is what we are pushing for. That is good enough for us,"

said Barnaba Marial Benjamin, spokesman for the Southern Sudan

government, who visited China in October. "This will be to our

advantage."

 

The policy swing has been substantial, given the two sides' uneasy

past. During Sudan's civil war, the SPLM declared the Chinese oil

companies to be fair military targets for their role in providing

income to the Sudanese government, and for their perceived

exploitation of the south's natural resources.

 

China continues to benefit from its wartime investments. Last year, 60

percent of Sudan's exports -mostly oil - went to China. State-owned

China National Petroleum Corp has poured billions into developing

Sudan's oil fields and remains the industry's biggest player.

 

Even with the recent courtship, frictions remain.

 

China National Petroleum Corp. maintains its country headquarters in

Khartoum and still has neither an office nor permanent staff in Juba,

despite the fact that most of its oil interests lie south of the

north-south border.

 

The company's relationship with southern communities on the ground is

often strained.

 

In Southern Sudan's Melut County, a key oil-producing area, sprawling

lakes of toxic waste water sit on the open ground, raising the ire of

locals and state authorities.

 

"It has burned the fertile lands and caused the crops to not grow

well. The cattle eat the grass, and it kills some," said Dinka

sub-chief Chol Ayiik, who complained that miscarriages and child

blindness are also on the rise among his people.

 

Simple mud huts often sit just yards away from an oil rig, and

war-ravaged local communities still await basic services.

 

"We have 360 villages that have been demolished and (there's) still no

compensation," said Akuoc Teng Diing, the Melut county commissioner.

 

Still, relations are advancing. CNPC has begun regularly communicating

with senior southern officials.

 

In October, Benjamin and other senior officials visited CNPC offices

in China, where he said they received a red carpet welcome. "Before,

they would not listen. But now it seems they are listening," Benjamin

said.

 

Ultimately, the Chinese shift is one of pure pragmatism - and business.

 

"China recognizes which way the wind is blowing," says Dan Large,

research director at the School of Oriental and African Studies at the

University of London. "They don't have any choice."

 

In exchange for the support for the referendum process, SPLM is

promising to honor the previous oil contracts signed with Khartoum and

to protect China's oil assets.

 

"In politics, friendship is not forever, and enmity is not forever,"

said the SPLM's Itto.

 

"We are not like the U.S. We don't say, 'You do that' or 'don't do

that.' We can't. We think this is an internal affair," said a Chinese

official involved in Southern Sudan relations. The official said he

could not be named because he was not authorized to speak on the

record.

 

After secession, both Sudan's north and south will need to cooperate

for oil production to continue, as the export pipeline runs through

the north.

 

"We are trying our best to convey to both sides that stability, and

only stability, can bring development," said the Chinese official.

 

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2010/12/24/105783/china-shifts-gears-in-sudan-advancing.html

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